Bitcoin Remains Stable Near $64,000 USD Despite Fed’s Status Quo: September Hike Still Possible

Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained its position around $64,000 after the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it was keeping its benchmark interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. This stability comes despite a split within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where three members voted for a surprise rate hike. Persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The market remains in suspense over a possible rate hike in September 2026, a decision that could significantly influence the trajectory of digital assets. What happened Following the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin remained stagnant around $64,000, with a daily trading volume of $34.5 billion—a level consistent with recent weeks. Three FOMC members expressed a preference for a 25-basis-point rate hike, while a majority supported maintaining the status quo. This division reflects internal tensions over inflation and economic growth. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining a restrictive policy until inflation sustainably returns to its 2% target, while leaving the door open for a hike in September if data justifies it. Fed Funds futures contracts now indicate a 68% probability of a hike in September, up from 55% before the announcement, according to CME Group data. Meanwhile, corporate credit spreads (CDX IG) have slightly widened, reflecting increased risk aversion among institutional investors. No changes were made to U.S. GDP growth forecasts for 2026, which remain at 2.1%, though downside risks tied to geopolitics were highlighted. Why it matters The Fed’s monetary policy plays a central role in the liquidity of financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. A restrictive policy, marked by high rates, typically reduces appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Conversely, monetary easing can stimulate flows into cryptocurrencies in search of yield. The current division within the FOMC creates uncertainty that is dampening capital movements into risk assets. Bitcoin’s hash rate, currently around 650 EH/s, remains high, strengthening network security but offering no protection against macroeconomic pressures. A September rate hike could push Bitcoin below $60,000, especially if it coincides with tighter liquidity conditions, as seen in March 2023. Altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL) could underperform Bitcoin in this scenario due to their heightened sensitivity to liquidity conditions. DeFi tokens like AAVE or COMP could be particularly vulnerable, with roughly 15% of their total value locked (TVL) exposed to rate-sensitive protocols. A September rate hike would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar (DXY), which could weigh on the prices of cryptocurrencies denominated in USD. Investors may also reallocate capital toward safe-haven assets like gold or government bonds, reducing flows into cryptocurrencies. U.S. commercial bank reserves have continued to decline, dropping from $3.2 trillion to $3.1 trillion in July—a sign of tightening liquidity in the financial system. What to watch Fed decision in September : A rate hike would validate market fears and could accelerate a correction in Bitcoin and altcoins. Macroeconomic data : Upcoming PMI indices, PCE inflation, or employment reports could influence the rate trajectory and, by extension, cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin miner reactions : If Bitcoin’s price falls below $60,000, miners may liquidate reserves to cover costs, exacerbating selling pressure. Geopolitical tensions : Escalation in the Middle East or intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions could destabilize markets beyond the Fed’s rate impact. Crypto market liquidity : Despite declining bank reserves, crypto markets remain liquid, but a liquidity crisis in traditional finance could trigger a cascading crash.