Indonesia bans Polymarket after bets on Prabowo's resignation

Indonesian regulators have announced the ban of Polymarket , a decentralized prediction market platform, after controversial bets were listed on a possible early resignation of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto . This decision is part of a broader crackdown on online gambling in Southeast Asia, where authorities consider prediction markets to be illegal tools for political speculation. Polymarket, although operating via decentralized smart contracts, remains accessible through centralized interfaces such as Polymarket.com, thereby exposing its users to legal risks in Indonesia. The facts The ban on Polymarket in Indonesia follows the creation of prediction markets speculating on a sensitive political scenario: an early resignation of President Prabowo Subianto. Local authorities justified this measure on the grounds of a violation of gambling laws , although Polymarket is not technically classified as a gambling platform. No date for lifting the ban has been communicated, leaving users uncertain about future access to the platform. This decision adds to a list of restrictions already in place in other countries, such as China or North Korea, where Polymarket is also blocked for similar reasons. According to unofficial data, the trading volume of tokens linked to prediction markets (such as YES/NO tokens) dropped by 40% over the last 24 hours. No decentralized alternative has emerged to fill this gap in Indonesia, where users risk administrative or criminal penalties if they continue to use Polymarket. Why it matters Polymarket operates as a decentralized Automated Market Maker (AMM) , allowing users to trade tokens reflecting the probability of an event. In Indonesia, these markets are considered illegal gambling, as they enable speculation on political or sporting events. Although the platform relies on Ethereum smart contracts, its centralized interface makes it vulnerable to local regulators, who can block it or sanction its users. On a technical level, this ban illustrates the challenges decentralized platforms face in a fragmented regulatory environment. Decentralized prediction markets, such as Augur or Omen, could benefit from an influx of users seeking alternatives, but regulatory risk remains high. Moreover, the price of tokens linked to these markets, such as POL, fell in reaction to this decision, reflecting a loss of liquidity in Southeast Asia. This measure is part of a broader trend of regulatory tightening in Southeast Asia, where authorities are fighting the expansion of prediction markets. Other countries could follow Indonesia's example, targeting these platforms under the pretext of combating gambling. Finally, despite their decentralized nature, platforms like Polymarket still depend on centralized interfaces (websites, APIs) that can easily be blocked, limiting their resistance to censorship. To watch A possible extension of the bans to other Asian countries, such as Malaysia or Thailand, which could impact the overall liquidity of prediction markets. The development of more censorship-resistant peer-to-peer solutions, such as decentralized protocols offering alternative interfaces (e.g., Omen, Augur). The reaction of Indonesian users, who could either turn to less well-known alternatives or stop all activity on these platforms. The evolution of the regulatory framework in Indonesia and the region, which could influence the strategies of prediction market platforms. The impact on tokens linked to prediction markets, whose liquidity could continue to contract in the absence of suitable solutions.